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How long has the internal combustion engine got?

Home Forums General Discussion Chit Chat How long has the internal combustion engine got?

Viewing 7 posts - 1 through 7 (of 7 total)
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  • #32397
    Eddieb
    Keymaster
    • Town/City: Tauranga
    • Bike: Suzuki DR650 ADV, BMW R100GS
    • Rank: Round the World Adventure Globetrotter

    With battery-powered vehicles developing rapidly and many other forms of fuel also being researched and developed, how long do you think we have left of mass-market internal combustion-powered motorcycles?

    In order to meet its emission and climate-related targets, in 2017 the United Kingdom set a date of 2040 to bring in a ban on the sale of NEW petrol, diesel, and even hybrid cars and vans being sold in the UK, with a date of 2050 to have all of the existing fleet of cars and vans age out of use and be taken off the road.
    Under this proposal from 2040 people in the UK would only be able to buy electric or hydrogen cars and vans, or possibly any other non-internal combustion-based power systems which may be developed between now and once the ban comes into effect.

    After consultation, the 2040 date to bring in the ban on the sale of new petrol, diesel, and hybrid cars and vans being sold in the UK has now been moved forward to 2035 and could be bought forward even earlier if possible, so that the 2050 target of all internal combustion cars and vans being taken off the road by 2050 can be achieved.

    So what do you think, will internal combustion motorcycles live long into the future? or will they go the way of the dinosaurs and the dinosaur-based fuel they run on?

    #32400
    citroenjunkie
    Participant
    • Town/City: Dannevirke
    • Bike: 2015 Zongshen RX3
    • Rank: 80cc Rider

    When people progressed from animal power to machinery I’m sure they discussed the demise of the horse at great length. The loss of jobs – farriers, stable hands feed merchants etc. and yet the equine world has survived, perhaps more as a pastime for the more affluent but it’s all still there.
    Surely the transition from fossil fuel to electricity will move in a similar way. There are still museums full of steam vehicles and events like the London to Brighton rally where they are used. It’s all very well to make electioneering promises to ban and legislate petrol and diesel out of existence but it won’t happen

    #32401
    OldBeer
    Participant
    • Bike: R1200GS, DL650, DRZ250, DRZ400S,
    • Rank: 1200cc Rider

    It will if they stop selling petrol and diesel….but as you say that wont happen because unfortunately for our species the money behind oil and gas will not allow that to happen.

    Ill settle for a major transition to electric vehicles in NZ at least and the sooner the better. Not much point in Australia until they get some of their power generation from renewable sources. Same goes for US, I guess.

    My next car will be an electric one and it wont be long before I have an electric motorbike of some sort. Might be a scooter, might be a fancy MTB but it will be electric.

    Its a pretty crazy situation when we have the Molesworth closed because of elevated fire risk and the Nevis road closed because of flooding. Statistically, Twizel should be about perfect!!

    #32402
    Eddieb
    Keymaster
    • Town/City: Tauranga
    • Bike: Suzuki DR650 ADV, BMW R100GS
    • Rank: Round the World Adventure Globetrotter
    #36522
    Eddieb
    Keymaster
    • Town/City: Tauranga
    • Bike: Suzuki DR650 ADV, BMW R100GS
    • Rank: Round the World Adventure Globetrotter

    Singapore has just announced new restrictions that in 2028 will effectively ban any motorcycle registered before July 2003.

    If your interested in the fancy numbers qualifying motorcycles must meet emissions standards of “4.5% Carbon Monoxide (CO) by Volume; and 7,800 ppm Hydrocarbons (HC) (for 2-stroke engine) or 2,000 ppm HC (for 4-stroke engine)”.
    After June 30, 2028, these motorcycles will either be banned in Singapore, or the owner can apply to be given a temporary permit with usage stipulations until such time as the vehicle is eligible for Classic Registration, which in Singapore is vehicles aged 35 years or older.

    The Singapore Environment Agency is offering an early de-registration incentive of up to $3,500, essentially a buy-back scheme, to encourage owners to take older bikes off the road and replace them with newer, lower emission models. According to the NEA, almost 60% of the 27,000 eligible motorcycles have so far been de-registered via this program.

    #36703
    Casperpete
    Participant
    • Bike: KTM 390 Adventure 2020
    • Rank: 125cc Rider

    Short answer (IMO)- A lot longer than anyone currently predicts. Forget technology (unless you are developing a hydrogen cell) the problem is where we obtain the magnitude of electricity required to fuel even todays fleet of private and commercial vehicles. At a minimum we will need to generate more than 50% more electricity than we can supply today.A 1000 Megawatt station (Eg;Huntly or Benmore) takes between 10 -15 years to plan and build. The country hasn’t built any projects of this magnitude in the last 20 years. You could build a nuclear plant – Ha Ha.Go stand on an over bridge on the Ak motorway and try and spot a few electric vehicles. They are a drop in the ocean.

    #36841
    Eddieb
    Keymaster
    • Town/City: Tauranga
    • Bike: Suzuki DR650 ADV, BMW R100GS
    • Rank: Round the World Adventure Globetrotter
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